Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 81834.149362 86365.865277 90897.405542 95765.622310 100844.346613 105983.222788 111572.792904
2026-01-25 74331.489741 81235.767548 88332.328303 96162.057195 104548.604758 113252.288681 122958.125749
2026-02-01 68645.780230 77139.758099 86062.688714 96115.337194 107105.358505 118734.985574 131951.546841
2026-02-08 64778.189121 74508.994846 84918.438822 96849.825274 110113.918170 124373.316302 140827.518523
2026-02-15 61120.977526 71772.361120 83351.026409 96825.138475 112024.453589 128589.177197 147955.965569
2026-02-22 58874.894250 70410.927447 83129.829265 98128.274073 115263.074547 134159.033029 156501.884271
2026-03-01 56669.630341 68933.204158 82632.151061 98984.243655 117883.336401 138949.917633 164114.694801
2026-03-08 54161.888197 66960.337061 81436.009774 98915.930350 119340.598028 142338.275588 170072.804850
2026-03-15 52128.251200 65432.008529 80655.145869 99235.724782 121166.803083 146090.473780 176411.030446
2026-03-22 50970.905556 64871.651552 80947.025323 100759.140810 124357.654092 151400.231747 184556.159176
2026-03-29 49697.456963 64103.243478 80933.351381 101869.706115 127025.167837 156081.004212 191969.906957
2026-04-05 48332.211054 63159.047603 80653.178297 102612.191045 129218.080752 160183.255331 198701.826178
2026-04-12 46715.692492 61862.839787 79915.651233 102783.441639 130725.427428 163494.693350 204547.315420
2026-04-19 45237.140875 60684.531904 79275.968574 103034.565857 132302.170923 166878.363014 210489.341082
2026-04-26 43684.179173 59355.443384 78398.998696 102947.050836 133428.904144 169697.707295 215746.126189
2026-05-03 42639.740769 58630.660745 78237.518945 103715.146605 135584.477294 173753.986088 222509.351535
2026-05-10 41283.073528 57457.381466 77470.231403 103687.087514 136724.676671 176555.222062 227741.152490
2026-05-17 40649.149906 57193.732298 77832.049449 105064.500355 139608.442703 181499.262292 235621.671918
2026-05-24 39840.141300 56670.581611 77837.324696 105969.345782 141888.727241 185700.892055 242606.201017
2026-05-31 38644.581661 55598.727599 77102.543162 105897.103769 142911.848780 188330.592150 247644.442643
2026-06-07 37684.091350 54809.030708 76705.636821 106235.172715 144438.486855 191580.801517 253461.803891
2026-06-14 37305.159587 54784.831265 77295.884137 107845.515361 147592.472442 196883.734083 261877.386328
2026-06-21 36765.977486 54523.778346 77559.312178 109019.294177 150183.604556 201487.164121 269439.281265